Le Chye

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Don't move along your utility curve. Shift it.

Mathematicians like to quantify. Ask a mathematician what happiness is and he - the one who has been seriously mathematicized - will probably reply that happiness is a mathematical function. The "happiness function" of a person takes as variables the income of the person, the number of houses or cars that the person has as well as all other factors that the person considers will influence his sense of happiness and returns a real value indicative of his level of happiness. In other words, theoretically, happiness can be quantify. The academic world knows this function as the utility function.

Daniel Bernoulli was the first person who introduced the concept of utilities (in 1738). Before him, people tended to use expected gain as a basis in their decision-making. The higher the expected gain of a decision, the more likely the person will choose the decision. Bernoulli found this concept flawed as the amount of satisfaction that an expected gain generates for a person differs from one person to another. I would be extremely happy if I strike 4d. Bill Gates might not even blink an eye if he did. This important idea in utility theory is best summed up by Bernoulli himself: "The utility resulting from any small increase in wealth will be inversely proportionate to the quantity of goods previously possessed". To illustrate this idea, mathematicians represent the utility function as a concave function with respect to wealth.
















Fig 1. An example of a concave utility curve.



The utility theory is fundamental in economics. Economists assume that the utility function of an individual (this can be extended to that of society) is an increasing function (albeit concave) of wealth. The more wealth a person possesses, the happier he is. But if he is already very rich, a small increase in wealth will not make him as happy as when he was poor (if he was ever poor). Based on this assumption, which I would say is pretty much valid, economists set forth to analyze and study how the world can produce more goods, generate more wealth and thus, and I emphasize that this is their primary objective, make everyone happier. Many economic theories have been developed since Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nation" was first published in 1776 and among them, one which has been rather influential is the model of economic growth developed by Robert Solow in the 1950s, which demonstrated the importance of technological progress in sustaining economic growth. The faster the rate of technological progress, the greater the growth in economy. Solow's model is probably the chief reason why the world is so obsessed in developing technology today.

The aim of increasing the happiness of people has gradually been lost on most economists as they become obsessed only in studying how economic growth can be achieved and sustained. The original objective of the economists was to increase the utilities of all individuals by moving horizontally across their utility curves, that is by increasing their wealth. However, the utility functions, based on which utility curves are drawn, are not simple functions of wealth, the single factor that economists are concerned with. The utility function of an individual probably varies with time, and is likely to be dependent on his/her personality and the wealth of other individuals among many other factors. For instance, a person who is ambitious might need to earn $10000 a month to be as happy as a person who, though only earns $2000 a month, is less ambitious. A person who owns a 5-room HDB flat today might only be as happy as a person who owns a 3-room HDB flat 20 years ago because most people have become wealthier and thus our expectations have changed.

That is to say, by trying to generate more wealth in the world, economists are actually shifting down the utility curves of each individual such that a person needs more wealth to be as happy as he was, say 20 years ago.















Fig 2. Our current utility curve is probably lower than our past utility curve. We now require more wealth to be as happy as we were in the past.


If we want to be happier by becoming richer, we do not only need to be richer, but we should strive to get richer faster by accumulating wealth at a rate faster than that accumulated by society. In this way, we might be able to increase our utilities (or happiness) even though our utility curves have shifted downwards due to our higher expectations of wealth.

The problem is that you and I will not be the only one trying to get rich faster. Happiness is sought by everyone. As such, we will both get caught in the rat race, the downward shift in our utility curves are accelerated and by the time our wealth is increased, we will not necessary be happier. This is why some millionaires tell us that given a choice, they would not be so obsessed with earning money in the past because they realized, after money is already in their pockets, that they could have been happier with less money.

Instead of being obsessed in striving to move horizontally across our current utility curves, which is what economists have been advocating over the last 200 hundred years or so, we should figure out how to shift our utility curves vertically upwards. A successful vertical upward shift in our utility curves will make us happier without a change in our wealth.
















Fig 3. Upward shift in the utility curve leads to higher utility at the same wealth level.


However, most of us do not even know our own utility functions. We do not know what we want in life and we do not really know what make us happy. How then can we shift our utility curves?

All that we know (or we assume to be the case) is that we will be happier with more money. This knowledge or assumption did not come about by accident. It is because the economists since Adam (Smith, not the Adam who ate the apple) have been propounding the positive relationship between utility and wealth. Today, it is ingrained in some people that more money equates to greater happiness. Which might be just the case for them. For the rest of us who remain skeptical, we also work to earn money. We do so because although we are uncertain of our utility function, we know for certain that we need money to fill our stomachs. And there is nothing much else to occupy our time except to work.

Maybe what we really need in order to be happy is to first identify our utility functions. Maybe what we really need is someone to lead us to find out what we want in life.

I'm hoping that someone is not a priest.



Aim of post: To influence you not to work too hard to earn money, so that my utility curve will shift downward at a slower rate, so that I can still earn my money and be happy (=

8 Comments:

  • But if it is a priest who can lead you to happiness, then why not consider it? :-)

    Interesting post there. Does shifting the utility curve upwards mean being more satisfied with what you have? Also, it'll be interesting to define what "wealth" is. If wealth refers solely to monetary riches, then the utility curve is true only if other conditions are met: strong and loving relationships, having a fulfiling job etc.

    By Blogger Terence, at 9:47 PM  

  • hi terence,

    thanks for the comment. I guess you're right to say that to shift the utility curve upwards is equivalent to being more satisfied with what we have in terms of material wealth. I earn $3000 per month but I spend only one hour a day with my family. If I can increase that to two hours a day, and I'm happy with that (some people might not=)), then I would have shifted my utility curve upwards.

    'Wealth' in my post refers solely to monetary riches, in line with how economists would normally define the word. The utility curves were plotted assuming that all other factors affecting utility are constant.

    Just to add a point that I did not mentioned on the post. I'm not totally convinced that the primary aim of government should be to pursue economic growth. I think a country loses sight of certain important values when it is over obsessed with accumulating wealth - notably, if its citizens are happy or not. Furthermore, I don't believe that the world can continue to generate positive economic growth every year(i.e produce more goods) not simply because businesses are cyclical, but because natural resources are limited and we are faced with global warming issues. We will soon (or already are) be forced to rethink how we should and can lead our life so that we still stand a chance of keeping Earth habitable for the next few generations to come. Accepting lesser wealth without comprising our happiness is, in my opinion, one solution. But it will be tough to convince people to be contented with what they have (I am not very convinced myself) after having pursued so fervently economic development for so many years.

    By Blogger le chye, at 1:36 PM  

  • Actually since utility cannot be measured, economists use Ordinal (ranking) utility rather than Cardinal utility (units of utility).

    We use indifference curves, not utility curves, in our analysis. The only place I've seen a utility curve is in expected utility theory, when we think about gambles.

    - Honours Year Economics Student

    By Blogger Agagooga, at 8:24 AM  

  • Hi, thks for pointing that out.

    Correct me if i'm wrong, but the indifference curves are generally used to demonstrate how we can reach a decision on how much of each good to produce in an economy. We produce the combination of goods that will give the highest utility. The utility curve is seldom evoked after the introductory economics class because it only illustrates how wealth is correlated with utility, but does not help in the decision of how much goods to produce, how to attain continuous economic growth etc

    Economics exist, in my opinion, because people believe that the greater our wealth, the happier we will be. Nothing wrong with that. But I believe that our utility curves (or functions) evolve with time as well as the manner in which economic growth is pursued, and economists have failed to take these factors into consideration in their relentless pursuit of optimum economic growth. Producing more goods, or generating more wealth don't equate to creating more happiness.

    Maybe I appear critical of economists in my post. On hindsight, it is perhaps the government's (as well as the citizens') responsibility to decide how best to increase the utility in a country. Having a strong economy is just one way to do that. And I think that it has been overemphasized.

    By Blogger le chye, at 10:33 AM  

  • Based on your reply to Terence, you may want to watch this clip I shared with my readers last month.

    http://the-upperroom.com/?p=219

    By sharing it with you,it made me happier. If you watch the entire clip (20 mins), I would be very happy.

    ". But it will be tough to convince people to be contented with what they have..." Yes, you can. Just share with others about the clip.

    By Blogger Upperroom, at 8:48 PM  

  • Mainstream Economics doesn't take that into account, but you might want to read about Behavioral Economics, which takes into account psychological insights about human behavior.

    By Blogger Agagooga, at 10:30 PM  

  • hi upperroom,

    I have seen the clip before. Enlightening stuff. It is one thing to know the importance of being contended and another to be contended. Thanks for sharing anyway=)

    By Blogger le chye, at 3:27 PM  

  • hi agagooga,

    There is mention of 'intertemporal choices' and 'expected utility' in behavioral economics which might be the answers I'm looking for. I believe that it is within the framework of these mathematical or economical tools that we might be able to come up with economic decisions in line with the aim of improving utility. Haven't got the time to read through everything yet but I believe the probability measure used to calculate expected utility should be chosen with care to reflect the higher chance that the utility curve will be shifted downwards when people are driven or drive themselves too hard to achieve economic goals.

    By Blogger le chye, at 3:43 PM  

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